Bullish and Bearish Sentiments Intertwined, Lead Prices May Continue to Fluctuate and Adjust [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,022/mt, fluctuating around the daily moving average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it fluctuated upward to a high of $2,035/mt, then briefly consolidated before falling below the daily moving average to a low of $2,017/mt, finally closing at $2,019.5/mt, down $1.5/mt or 0.07%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 17,555 yuan/mt early in the session before fluctuating downward, and finally closed at 17,490 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%.

The US Supreme Court opened debates on the tariff case, with conservative Chief Justice and others questioning the rationality of the tariffs, reducing the probability of a Trump victory; Bessent remains optimistic about winning. Two Democratic leaders sent a letter to Trump seeking face-to-face negotiations, but Trump still insists he will not negotiate with them until Democrats vote to reopen the government. Due to the shutdown, capacity at 40 major US airports will be cut by 10%. Approved by the State Council, effective from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, the announcement by the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on imposing additional tariffs on imports originating from the US was adjusted, continuing to suspend the 24% additional tariff rate on US goods for one year, while maintaining the 10% additional tariff rate. China's October services PMI remained in expansion territory.

Spot Fundamentals:

In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2512 contract. Before the expected lead ingot inventory buildup materialized, SHFE lead held up well. Suppliers quoted prices accordingly. Meanwhile, regional supply differences for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead production sites persisted. Quotations from mainstream production areas were at premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Secondary lead enterprises also held prices firm to sell. Secondary refined lead quotations were at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises were cautious of high prices and purchased less, with some enterprises mainly procuring via long-term contracts. Trading activity in the spot order market decreased.

Inventory: As of November 5, LME lead inventory decreased by 3,925 mt to 208,600 mt. As of November 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions surveyed by SMM reached 30,200 mt, down nearly 200 mt from October 27, but up over 300 mt from October 30.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Refined lead supply side, regional disparities remained unchanged. After the increase in spot circulating supply in Henan, Anhui, and other regions, suppliers found it difficult to narrow the discounts against SHFE lead. However, primary lead smelters in the South China market still concluded deals with premium quotations. Imports of crude lead in November are expected to gradually materialize, easing the tight supply of raw materials for secondary refined lead, but the supply of raw materials such as lead concentrates continues to constrain the operating rate and production increases of primary lead smelters. Although there is still an expectation of a short-term accumulation in refined lead social inventory, downstream consumption performance remains moderate, coupled with strong support below the lead price. Amid intertwined bullish and bearish sentiment, lead prices are likely to continue fluctuating and adjusting.